Car sales in Europe continue their slow but steady rise, as a 7% increase in September confirms the July dip was only a slight glitsh and no warning sign of a plateauing market as the US is facing. With 1.489.343 sales, this is the highest September volume for the European market on record and it brings the Year-to-Date figure up 7,5% to 11.529.096 sales. All major markets posted growth, with the Southern European markets at double digit growth again: Italy (+17,4%) and Spain (+13,9%), followed by Germany (+9,4%) and France (+2,5%). Even the UK showed another slight improvement at +1,6% despite the fears that the subsequent price increases after the devaluation of the British Pound and the uncertainty after the Brexit vote would hurt demand in that market. As usual in September (and March), the UK is easily the largest market in Europe as sales in this market are skewed towards these two months thanks to the twice-yearly license place change, this month to the “66” plates.
The UK accounted for almost a third (31,5%) of total sales in the 27 countries of the EU and EFTA in September, while the full-year share ends up at around 18,5 – 19%. That also influences the brands and models ranking, with those that are popular in the UK gaining an advantage over those that are relatively more dependent on mainland Europe. This most notably affects Ford, Opel/Vauxhall, Nissan, the British brands Mini and Jaguar–Land Rover and the German luxury brands to whom the UK is their biggest European market after Germany. Ford and Opel/Vauxhall both sell almost twice as many cars in September than they did in August, while for Mini that ratio is over 2,5 and both Jaguar and Land Rover sell more than 3 times as many units in September compared to August. Nissan moves from 16th place in August to 11th in September and adds more than a percentage point of market share.
For the first time since June, Renault-Nissan is the manufacturer adding the most volume, closely followed by Volkswagen Group and Daimler AG, while PSA, Ford Motor Company and Geely with its Volvo brand are the biggest losing manufacturers. In relative terms, Tesla Motors is the fastest growing manufacturer in Europe in September, tripling its volume thanks to the introduction of the Model X SUV. SAIC MG almost doubles up thanks to the GS crossover and continued improvement of the MG3 subcompact even though the company has announced it will (logically) cease UK final assembly of its models. The Chinese company promises job losses will be limited and it will keep R&D jobs at Longbridge. Aston Martin, Fuji Heavy Industries and Mitsubishi Motors are the fastest declining manufacturers in Europe in September, with the former two showing double digit losses.
In August Mercedes-Benz was the big volume gainer in Europe, and in September it’s in 2nd place not far behind Renault and significantly ahead of its rival BMW. Citroën, Ford and Nissan are the biggest volume losers and even though their losses remain relatively minor, they still lose a chunk of market share in a growing market. Tesla prevents Infiniti from scoring a fourth consecutive month as Europe’s fastest growing brand, but at +144% the Japanese luxury brand extends its triple-digit winning streak to eight months. Bentley also doubles up thanks to the Bentayga. On the other side of the spectrum, small player Mahindra takes an 81% hit as its sales are down into single digits for the first time since August 2012.
September 2016 winners and losers
| Manufacturer biggest volume increase | Renault-Nissan | 19.045 | Manufacturer biggest volume lost | PSA | -7.145 | |
| Volkswagen Group | 18.644 | Ford Motor Comp. | -2.615 | |||
| Daimler AG | 16.062 | Geely (Volvo) | -1.089 | |||
| Manufacturer biggest % increase | Tesla Motors | 207,4% | Manufacturer biggest % lost | Aston Martin | -18,4% | |
| SAIC MG | 96,7% | Fuji H.I. (Subaru) | -11,5% | |||
| DRB-Hicom (Lotus) | 84,3% | Mitsubishi Motors | -6,4% | |||
| Brand biggest volume increase | Renault | 15.646 | Brand biggest volume lost | Citroën | -4.976 | |
| Mercedes-Benz | 14.590 | Ford | -2.615 | |||
| BMW | 9.079 | Nissan | -1.798 | |||
| Brand biggest % increase | Tesla | 207,4% | Brand biggest % lost | Mahindra | -81,4% | |
| Infiniti | 144,4% | Chevrolet | -63,5% | |||
| Bentley | 106,8% | Aston Martin | -18,4% |
Year-to-Date, Renault-Nissan stays ahead of Fiat Chrysler Automobiles and Daimler AG as the biggest gainers, with BMW Group also still ahead of Volkswagen Group. Mitsubishi Motors, Aston Martin and Fuji Heavy Industries are the only three manufacturers to lose volume in Europe so far this year, the latter is down by only 39 units on the first three quarters of 2015. At brand level, Mercedes-Benz has outgrown Fiat but Renault remains king with over 95.000 additional sales so far this year. After Mitsubishi and Nissan, DS has now lost more units than Volkswagen, which naturally results in a much bigger relative loss for the small French luxury brand than for the big German brand.
January – September 2016 winners and losers
| Manufacturer biggest volume increase | Renault-Nissan | 126.464 | Manufacturer biggest volume lost | Mitsubishi Motors | -9.454 | |
| Fiat Chrysler Automobiles | 98.522 | Aston Martin | -154 | |||
| Daimler AG | 86.733 | Fuji H.I. (Subaru) | -39 | |||
| Manufacturer biggest % increase | AvtoVAZ (Lada) | 67,3% | Manufacturer biggest % lost | Aston Martin | -12,2% | |
| Mahindra & Mahindra | 45,3% | Mitsubishi Motors | -9,6% | |||
| Tata Motors | 36,4% | Fuji H.I. (Subaru) | -0,1% | |||
| Brand biggest volume increase | Renault | 95.385 | Brand biggest volume lost | Mitsubishi | -9.454 | |
| Mercedes-Benz | 78.718 | Nissan | -8.710 | |||
| Fiat | 73.818 | DS | -3.348 | |||
| Brand biggest % increase | Infiniti | 166,0% | Brand biggest % lost | Tata | -97,8% | |
| Jaguar | 74,2% | Bugatti | -54,5% | |||
| Lada | 67,3% | Chevrolet | -44,5% |
As expected, Ford and Opel/Vauxhall outsell Renault in September thanks to their higher dependence on the UK market, but their advantage has shrunk significantly with Renault up 19,3% compared to a 4,1% gain for the GM brands and a 2,4% loss for Ford. Mercedes-Benz outsold Renault in August but is back in 5th place in September, as an 18,9% gain moves it past BMW. Fiat re-enters the top-10 and Toyota is outsold by Nissan for only the second time this year, after the also UK-boosted month of March. In 2015, Nissan outsold its Japanese rival for the first time. Mini is in the top-20 outselling Volvo by a single unit, with Land Rover ahead of Suzuki and Honda. Jeep closes in on Mitsubishi and Jaguar takes distance from Alfa Romeo and Lexus.
The big event this month is SAIC MG scoring its first-ever month of 1.000+ unit sales in Europe, which also means it’s the first time ever a Chinese brand reaches this volume in the continent. This should give MG a much needed confidence boost to continue planning a roll-out to other European markets than its sole market UK for now. Those plans were backtracked when the Brexit vote came through, but since the company will cease UK production and both Nissan and GM have shown confidence in a positive turnout, this shouldn’t be an obstacle anymore.
September 2016 brand ranking
| Brand | sep-16 | sep-15 | change | 2016 share | 2015 share | |
| 1 | Volkswagen | 161.031 | 155.384 | 3,6% | 10,8% | 11,2% |
| 2 | Ford | 108.559 | 111.174 | -2,4% | 7,3% | 8,0% |
| 3 | Opel/Vauxhall | 102.518 | 98.507 | 4,1% | 6,9% | 7,1% |
| 4 | Renault | 96.675 | 81.029 | 19,3% | 6,5% | 5,8% |
| 5 | Mercedes-Benz | 91.762 | 77.172 | 18,9% | 6,2% | 5,5% |
| 6 | BMW | 87.453 | 78.374 | 11,6% | 5,9% | 5,6% |
| 7 | Audi | 81.508 | 75.144 | 8,5% | 5,5% | 5,4% |
| 8 | Peugeot | 77.309 | 78.289 | -1,3% | 5,2% | 5,6% |
| 9 | Fiat | 67.108 | 63.376 | 5,9% | 4,5% | 4,6% |
| 10 | Skoda | 62.493 | 56.845 | 9,9% | 4,2% | 4,1% |
| 11 | Nissan | 61.833 | 63.631 | -2,8% | 4,2% | 4,6% |
| 12 | Toyota | 60.829 | 56.259 | 8,1% | 4,1% | 4,0% |
| 13 | Hyundai | 51.079 | 49.247 | 3,7% | 3,4% | 3,5% |
| 14 | Citroën | 45.017 | 49.993 | -10,0% | 3,0% | 3,6% |
| 15 | Kia | 44.500 | 37.975 | 17,2% | 3,0% | 2,7% |
| 16 | Dacia | 32.127 | 27.535 | 16,7% | 2,2% | 2,0% |
| 17 | Seat | 29.436 | 29.305 | 0,4% | 2,0% | 2,1% |
| 18 | Mazda | 27.164 | 27.377 | -0,8% | 1,8% | 2,0% |
| 19 | Mini | 26.363 | 22.143 | 19,1% | 1,8% | 1,6% |
| 20 | Volvo | 26.362 | 27.475 | -4,1% | 1,8% | 2,0% |
| 21 | Land Rover | 21.268 | 13.989 | 52,0% | 1,4% | 1,0% |
| 22 | Suzuki | 21.052 | 20.151 | 4,5% | 1,4% | 1,4% |
| 23 | Honda | 19.777 | 17.869 | 10,7% | 1,3% | 1,3% |
| 24 | Mitsubishi | 10.394 | 11.110 | -6,4% | 0,7% | 0,8% |
| 25 | Jeep | 10.343 | 8.477 | 22,0% | 0,7% | 0,6% |
| 26 | Smart | 9.720 | 8.248 | 17,8% | 0,7% | 0,6% |
| 27 | Jaguar | 9.675 | 6.648 | 45,5% | 0,6% | 0,5% |
| 28 | Alfa Romeo | 6.941 | 4.981 | 39,3% | 0,5% | 0,4% |
| 29 | Porsche | 6.786 | 6.208 | 9,3% | 0,5% | 0,4% |
| 30 | DS | 6.491 | 7.680 | -15,5% | 0,4% | 0,6% |
| 31 | Lexus | 6.056 | 5.134 | 18,0% | 0,4% | 0,4% |
| 32 | Lancia-Chrysler | 5.397 | 4.716 | 14,4% | 0,4% | 0,3% |
| 33 | Subaru | 3.804 | 4.297 | -11,5% | 0,3% | 0,3% |
| 34 | Tesla | 3.206 | 1.043 | 207,4% | 0,2% | 0,1% |
| 35 | SSangYong | 2.167 | 1.790 | 21,1% | 0,1% | 0,1% |
| 36 | Infiniti | 1.024 | 419 | 144,4% | 0,1% | 0,0% |
| 37 | SAIC MG | 1.005 | 511 | 96,7% | 0,1% | 0,0% |
| 38 | Maserati | 926 | 626 | 47,9% | 0,1% | 0,0% |
| 39 | Bentley | 455 | 220 | 106,8% | 0,0% | 0,0% |
| 40 | Ferrari | 204 | 204 | 0,0% | 0,0% | 0,0% |
| 41 | Aston Martin | 155 | 190 | -18,4% | 0,0% | 0,0% |
| 42 | Lada | 154 | 134 | 14,9% | 0,0% | 0,0% |
| 43 | Rolls Royce | 100 | 73 | 37,0% | 0,0% | 0,0% |
| 44 | Lotus | 94 | 51 | 84,3% | 0,0% | 0,0% |
| 45 | Lamborghini | 90 | 50 | 80,0% | 0,0% | 0,0% |
| 46 | Cadillac | 76 | 49 | 55,1% | 0,0% | 0,0% |
| 47 | Dodge | 58 | 64 | -9,4% | 0,0% | 0,0% |
| 48 | Chevrolet | 35 | 96 | -63,5% | 0,0% | 0,0% |
| 49 | Geely | 24 | 0 | – | 0,0% | 0,0% |
| 50 | DR | 10 | 12 | -16,7% | 0,0% | 0,0% |
| 51 | Mahindra | 8 | 43 | -81,4% | 0,0% | 0,0% |
| 52 | Bugatti | 2 | 0 | – | 0,0% | 0,0% |
Ford has reclaimed its #2 ranking from Renault after its strong showing in September, but the gap has closed from 80.000 units in 2015 to less than 5.000 units in 2016. Keep in mind the French brand outsold its American counterpart by over 11.000 units in Q4 of last year, so it still has the best shot at grabbing 2nd place behind for the year.
In September, Mercedes-Benz narrowed the YTD gap to Audi from over 12.000 units to just 2.000 units. Similarly like the two brands mentioned in the previous paragraph, Mercedes outsold Audi by 7.000 units in Q4 of 2015 and considering it has great momentum going with successful launches, the Stuttgart brand looks set to reclaim the European luxury crown it last held in 2008.
Plenty of changes in the YTD ranking in September: Nissan has passed Citroën for 12th place, Mini has passed Suzuki for a top-20 position and DS has passed Lancia for 27th place. Its great performance in the UK market in September has helped Jaguar pass Alfa Romeo for the first nine months of the year and Tesla has snuck past Infiniti.
January – September 2016 brand ranking
| Brand | YTD 2016 | YTD 2015 | change | 2015 rank | |
| 1 | Volkswagen | 1.304.958 | 1.304.324 | 0,0% | 1 |
| 2 | Ford | 816.445 | 796.299 | 2,5% | 2 |
| 3 | Renault | 811.611 | 716.226 | 13,3% | 4 |
| 4 | Opel/Vauxhall | 769.358 | 720.091 | 6,8% | 3 |
| 5 | Peugeot | 663.034 | 637.355 | 4,0% | 5 |
| 6 | Audi | 636.281 | 588.144 | 8,2% | 6 |
| 7 | Mercedes-Benz | 634.259 | 555.541 | 14,2% | 7 |
| 8 | BMW | 615.094 | 551.582 | 11,5% | 8 |
| 9 | Fiat | 574.783 | 500.965 | 14,7% | 9 |
| 10 | Skoda | 497.819 | 467.983 | 6,4% | 10 |
| 11 | Toyota | 455.935 | 423.223 | 7,7% | 12 |
| 12 | Nissan | 425.788 | 434.498 | -2,0% | 11 |
| 13 | Citroën | 424.278 | 419.824 | 1,1% | 13 |
| 14 | Hyundai | 380.698 | 352.306 | 8,1% | 14 |
| 15 | Kia | 338.611 | 297.219 | 13,9% | 15 |
| 16 | Dacia | 315.959 | 282.975 | 11,7% | 16 |
| 17 | Seat | 262.026 | 261.961 | 0,0% | 17 |
| 18 | Volvo | 207.306 | 197.488 | 5,0% | 18 |
| 19 | Mazda | 185.762 | 159.116 | 16,7% | 19 |
| 20 | Mini | 158.384 | 138.935 | 14,0% | 20 |
| 21 | Suzuki | 151.788 | 134.884 | 12,5% | 21 |
| 22 | Land Rover | 130.937 | 103.842 | 26,1% | 22 |
| 23 | Honda | 127.779 | 99.388 | 28,6% | 23 |
| 24 | Mitsubishi | 89.126 | 98.580 | -9,6% | 24 |
| 25 | Smart | 80.168 | 72.153 | 11,1% | 25 |
| 26 | Jeep | 79.514 | 64.841 | 22,6% | 26 |
| 27 | DS | 53.697 | 57.045 | -5,9% | 27 |
| 28 | Lancia-Chrysler | 52.676 | 48.367 | 8,9% | 29 |
| 29 | Porsche | 52.114 | 53.821 | -3,2% | 28 |
| 30 | Jaguar | 50.426 | 28.950 | 74,2% | 31 |
| 31 | Alfa Romeo | 48.469 | 43.506 | 11,4% | 30 |
| 32 | Lexus | 34.321 | 28.944 | 18,6% | 32 |
| 33 | Subaru | 28.381 | 28.420 | -0,1% | 33 |
| 34 | SSangYong | 15.195 | 10.313 | 47,3% | 34 |
| 35 | Tesla | 11.041 | 10.212 | 8,1% | 35 |
| 36 | Infiniti | 10.904 | 4.099 | 166,0% | 37 |
| 37 | Maserati | 5.452 | 4.850 | 12,4% | 36 |
| 38 | SAIC MG | 3.307 | 2.466 | 34,1% | 38 |
| 39 | Bentley | 2.703 | 1.841 | 46,8% | 40 |
| 40 | Ferrari | 2.344 | 2.180 | 7,5% | 39 |
| 41 | Lada | 2.292 | 1.370 | 67,3% | 42 |
| 42 | Aston Martin | 1.110 | 1.264 | -12,2% | 43 |
| 43 | Chevrolet | 937 | 1.689 | -44,5% | 41 |
| 44 | Lamborghini | 775 | 703 | 10,2% | 44 |
| 45 | Lotus | 674 | 630 | 7,0% | 45 |
| 46 | Rolls Royce | 594 | 462 | 28,6% | 47 |
| 47 | Cadillac | 564 | 383 | 47,3% | 49 |
| 48 | Dodge | 480 | 475 | 1,1% | 46 |
| 49 | Mahindra | 377 | 407 | -7,4% | 48 |
| 50 | DR | 180 | 192 | -6,3% | 50 |
| 51 | Great Wall | 119 | 119 | 0,0% | 52 |
| 52 | Geely | 65 | 0 | – | – |
| 53 | Bugatti | 5 | 11 | -54,5% | 53 |
| 54 | Tata | 4 | 181 | -97,8% | 51 |