Three weeks ago I wrote an article about the predictions for the two renewed compact cars in Europe, the Renault Megane and the Opel/Vauxhall Astra, and we asked you guys what your thoughts about these forecasts were. With 122 voters, this has been one of the most popular polls so far and the article seems to have created a bit of a stir.
More than half of you thought that the Astra isn’t going to sell 300.000 units this year, but the Megane will easily beat the expected 190.000. There may have been some misunderstanding, as I concluded from the comments below that article. These are not the long-term sales volumes, but strictly limited to 2016, which means the new generation Megane will start with a disadvantage from not having a full year of sales.
The outgoing generation has already lost a huge chunk of its volume since the new one has been revealed, but customer deliveries of the new one won’t start until Q2. That means the Megane will be losing a lot of ground in the first four months of the year or so. And the new one will initially be available as a five-door hatchback only, with a station wagon not planned until the end of the year or even next year, which will also cost it some volume. So 190.000 sales may seem low, but I’m pretty sure the Megane is capable of 250.000 in 2017 when it has a full year availability of the new model, including a station wagon. By that time, the Volkswagen Golf may dip below the 400.000 sales, down from the 530.000 they’re likely to have sold in 2015.
Still, another quarter of voters thought the forecasts were pretty accurate, and another 7% found them both overly optimistic, which means just 12% of voters think the 300.000 sales for the Astra are on the low side, compared to 62% to whom that figure seems to be on the high side, even though the previous generation Astra hit that figure as recently as 2011.
Conclusion: the Megane’s estimate seems low to most of you, although there may have been a misunderstanding about the timeframe of this figure, but the Astra is unlikely to beat 300.000 sales this year. We’ll know more in about 12 months.
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