European-auto-sales-statistics-2015-October-Mercedes_Benz-dealership

European car sales analysis October 2015 – brands

European car sales continue to slowly climb out of the recession, with sales up a timid 2% in October 2015 at 1.134.167, the 26th consecutive month of year-over-year increases. Year-to-date, the figure stands at 11.850.632, up 8% on 2014, so we may top 14 million European car sales in 2015, the first time to do so since 2011. That may still be a long way from the 16 million-plus sales a decade ago, but at least it’s a volume at which most European automakers have a sustainable business case.

European-auto-sales-statistics-2015-October-Mercedes_Benz-dealershipOctober has marked a significant and sudden change of fortune for some manufacturers, as the big winners of the first three quarters, Volkswagen Group and Renault-Nissan have suddenly moved to the “biggest losers” side of the table. Volkswagen and Seat, and Nissan and Dacia have lost volume on last year, after having enjoyed great improvements earlier in the year. Is this a temporary glitch or a sign of upcoming bad times? Well, Volkswagen is starting to feel the impact of the diesel scandal, which started early September. Considering most European car buyers configure their car to their liking and then wait a few weeks for it to be manufactured, it makes sense that it would take about a month before the brand would start to feel the impact of reduced customer interest. We’ll keep a close eye on the progression of Volkswagen sales in the upcoming months. Of course, a stop-sale order on certain diesel models doesn’t help either, and this also affects other brands of the Volkswagen Group.

Seat is currently in a fresh-product lull, as the Leon is feeling the heat of the fresher Peugeot 308, while Renault and Opel/Vauxhall are preparing to replace their newest compact hatchbacks Megane and Astra. And a minor facelift can’t hide the fact that the Ibiza is already almost 7 years old. For Dacia the current slowdown seems like a natural development as its updated models (new generations of the Sandero and Logan, facelifted Duster) are now more than a year on the market. A similar development is visible at Nissan, where Qashqai sales are now no longer compared to the outgoing model, but to the first months of sales of the current one, while the Note has suddenly lost steam and the Juke is feeling the heat of new competition.

This has helped Daimler and BMW Group to become the biggest growth engines of the market in October, followed by FCA Fiat-Chrysler. The premium brands have been strong all year, and have scored a few third places among them, but now that VW and the French-Japanese alliance are vulnerable, they’ve moved in swiftly.

Lotus-auto-sales-statistics-EuropeLooking at relative growth, Tesla keeps impressing at their current sales pace, which is surprisingly stable compared to last year’s on-again-off-again cadence, which appears to have been taken over by Lotus and SAIC MG. These two brands keep going from fastest growing to fastest declining from one month to the other. In October, Lotus (owned by Malaysia’s DRB-Hicom) grows by 167,5% after being the industry’s biggest loser the month before. SAIC MG was the #3 fastest growing manufacturer in September, but in October, it loses 15,4% of its volume, more than any other manufacturer. Surprisingly, Toyota Motor Corp. is in that negative top-3 as well, albeit with a modest -3,2%.

Brands-wise, BMW is the big winner of the month, adding more than 7.300 units to its October volume, followed by both Daimler brands Smart and Mercedes-Benz, while Citroën joins Volkswagen and Seat among the biggest losers. Behind Tesla, India’s Tata is the #2 fastest growing brand, albeit from a very low base. The growth comes from an unidentified new model, possibly the Zest sedan or Bolt hatchback, which were shown at the Geneva Auto Show last March, although the company then denied having plans of exports to Europe for these models. Cadillac also gets a nice boost, but I doubt 64 monthly units will get the champagne popping in Detroit. No wait, they’ve moved their headquarters to New York to separate themselves from the rest of GM.

European-auto-sales-statistics-2015-October-Renault-KadjarThe October brand ranking gets a shake-up as well, as Renault moves back into third place after being outsold by Opel/Vauxhall for three consecutive months. In fact, Renault is only 1.500 units behind Ford, which suffers from a slowdown after the huge September volume boost in the UK. A similar phenomenon plagues Vauxhall, as the combined GM units even fall down to fifth place behind Peugeot, and also UK-dependent Nissan, which falls from #9 in September to #13 and behind rival Toyota in October.

Audi is back ahead of BMW and Mercedes-Benz for the first time since July, despite the latter two showing great year-on-year improvements. Honda celebrates two consecutive months of growth for the first time since early 2013, while Chevrolet starts off its final quarter of official sales in Europe between Russia’s Lada brand and Tata of India.

October winners and losers

Manufacturer biggest volume increase Daimler AG 11.703 Manufacturer biggest volume lost Volkswagen Group -6.607
BMW Group 5.303 Renault-Nissan -3.073
Fiat-Chrysler Automobiles 4.778 PSA -2.439
Manufacturer biggest % increase Tesla Motors 541,1% Manufacturer biggest % lost SAIC MG -15,4%
DRB-Hicom (Proton / Lotus) 167,6% AvtoVAZ (Lada) -14,0%
Mahindra & Mahindra 75,9% Toyota Motor -3,2%
Brand biggest volume increase BMW 7.353 Brand biggest volume lost Volkswagen -5.315
Smart 6.478 Seat -3.194
Mercedes-Benz 5.225 Citroën -3.173
Brand biggest % increase Tesla 541,1% Brand biggest % lost Great Wall -78,0%
Tata 368,6% DR -69,6%
Cadillac 220,0% Chevrolet -68,8%

January – October 2015 sales

Despite their October struggles, Volkswagen Group and Renault-Nissan are still the two manufacturers that add the most volume so far this year, with Daimler consolidating in third place, while the two positive months are not enough for Honda to move away from its position as the only manufacturer to lose sales in 2015.

Renault_Megane-Opel_Astra-European-auto-sales-statistics-October-2015

Renault has moved ahead of Opel/Vauxhall in the YTD brand ranking to take third place behind Volkswagen and Ford. With the new Kadjar and continued success of the Captur, the French are unlikely to give away the lead by the end of the year, but it will be an interesting battle in 2016, when the new Astra and Megane will fight it out in the compact segment. Analysts predict the Astra to take the advantage over the Megane, which will face cannibalization from the Kadjar, so the race for third place will be tight next year.

Honda has dropped behind Mitsubishi again, as the HR-V has only just been introduced and won’t reach full speed before the end of the year.

Any interesting battles to watch for the final two months of the year? In October, BMW narrowed the gap to its rival Mercedes-Benz by more than 1.100 units to just over 2.700 units. With the all-new GLC and facelifted and renamed M-Class/GLE Mercedes still has the momentum to stay ahead for the rest of the year, but BMW is always a force to be reckoned with.

Jaguar_XE-auto-sales-statistics-EuropeNissan, Toyota and Citroën are within 10.000 units of each other and in the exact opposite order in October, but the gaps seem too large to close in those final two months, giving Nissan the coveted title of best selling Asian brand in Europe. Then there’s Jaguar and Lexus, which have been swapping places for the past couple of years. Both have introduced an important all-new model this year with the XE and the NX, and so far Jaguar is ahead by a mere 21 units. My prediction for the end of the year? Jaguar will stay ahead.

January – October 2015 winners and losers

Manufacturer biggest volume increase Volkswagen Group 175.741 Manufacturer biggest volume lost Honda -5.194
Renault-Nissan 141.849
Daimler AG 100.361
Manufacturer biggest % increase Mahindra & Mahindra 68,4% Manufacturer biggest % lost Honda -4,5%
Tesla Motors 60,3%
DRB-Hicom (Proton / Lotus) 35,3%
Brand biggest volume increase Volkswagen 85.915 Brand biggest volume lost Chevrolet -35.005
Nissan 72.214 DS -12.509
Mercedes-Benz 63.524 Lancia-Chrysler -9.135
Brand biggest % increase Jeep 149,0% Brand biggest % lost Chevrolet -94,9%
Smart 82,3% Great Wall -63,3%
SSangYong 69,5% DS -16,7%

October 2015 brand ranking

Brand October 2015 October 2014 change
1 Volkswagen 136.345 141.660 -3,8%
2 Ford 79.926 79.243 0,9%
3 Renault 78.478 77.924 0,7%
4 Peugeot 69.111 67.977 1,7%
5 Opel/Vauxhall 68.278 69.845 -2,2%
6 Audi 65.419 63.451 3,1%
7 BMW 62.380 55.027 13,4%
8 Mercedes-Benz 61.224 55.999 9,3%
9 Fiat 53.346 49.218 8,4%
10 Skoda 49.436 50.252 -1,6%
11 Citroën 44.924 48.097 -6,6%
12 Toyota 44.384 46.049 -3,6%
13 Nissan 40.480 41.940 -3,5%
14 Hyundai 37.682 36.110 4,4%
15 Kia 31.819 32.127 -1,0%
16 Dacia 29.180 31.558 -7,5%
17 Volvo 25.451 24.456 4,1%
18 Seat 24.869 28.063 -11,4%
19 Mazda 17.091 13.160 29,9%
20 Suzuki 15.800 13.735 15,0%
21 Mini 13.345 15.398 -13,3%
22 Land Rover 11.230 8.393 33,8%
23 Mitsubishi 10.849 10.356 4,8%
24 Honda 9.972 9.813 1,6%
25 Smart 9.425 2.947 219,8%
26 Jeep 7.212 4.314 67,2%
27 Porsche 6.113 5.362 14,0%
28 DS 5.533 5.933 -6,7%
29 Lancia-Chrysler 4.485 6.350 -29,4%
30 Alfa Romeo 4.402 4.884 -9,9%
31 Jaguar 3.365 1.865 80,4%
32 Lexus 3.356 3.262 2,9%
33 Subaru 3.248 2.961 9,7%
34 SSangYong 1.393 770 80,9%
35 Tesla 936 146 541,1%
36 Maserati 536 466 15,0%
37 Infiniti 530 319 66,1%
38 Bentley 247 211 17,1%
39 Ferrari 221 163 35,6%
40 Lada 184 214 -14,0%
41 Chevrolet 174 557 -68,8%
42 Tata 164 35 368,6%
43 SAIC MG 159 188 -15,4%
44 Aston Martin 140 101 38,6%
45 Lotus 99 37 167,6%
46 Cadillac 64 20 220,0%
47 Rolls Royce 53 50 6,0%
48 Dodge 41 73 -43,8%
49 Lamborghini 39 71 -45,1%
50 Mahindra 32 40 -20,0%
51 DR 14 46 -69,6%
52 Great Wall 11 50 -78,0%

January – October 2015 brand ranking

Brand Jan-Oct 2015 Market share Jan-Oct 2014 Market share change YoY
1 Volkswagen 1.437.757 12,1% 1.351.842 12,3% 6,4%
2 Ford 876.225 7,4% 826.030 7,5% 6,1%
3 Renault 794.704 6,7% 731.290 6,7% 8,7%
4 Opel/Vauxhall 788.341 6,7% 749.351 6,8% 5,2%
5 Peugeot 706.466 6,0% 665.170 6,1% 6,2%
6 Audi 653.563 5,5% 620.466 5,7% 5,3%
7 Mercedes-Benz 616.703 5,2% 553.179 5,0% 11,5%
8 BMW 613.947 5,2% 561.201 5,1% 9,4%
9 Fiat 554.311 4,7% 500.688 4,6% 10,7%
10 Skoda 517.419 4,4% 487.958 4,4% 6,0%
11 Nissan 474.978 4,0% 402.764 3,7% 17,9%
12 Toyota 467.598 3,9% 447.294 4,1% 4,5%
13 Citroën 464.748 3,9% 447.546 4,1% 3,8%
14 Hyundai 389.988 3,3% 358.132 3,3% 8,9%
15 Kia 329.038 2,8% 304.526 2,8% 8,0%
16 Dacia 312.155 2,6% 307.366 2,8% 1,6%
17 Seat 286.830 2,4% 274.164 2,5% 4,6%
18 Volvo 222.939 1,9% 207.152 1,9% 7,6%
19 Mazda 176.207 1,5% 150.965 1,4% 16,7%
20 Mini 151.645 1,3% 126.234 1,2% 20,1%
21 Suzuki 150.684 1,3% 139.630 1,3% 7,9%
22 Land Rover 115.072 1,0% 102.055 0,9% 12,8%
23 Mitsubishi 109.429 0,9% 84.217 0,8% 29,9%
24 Honda 109.360 0,9% 114.554 1,0% -4,5%
25 Smart 81.578 0,7% 44.740 0,4% 82,3%
26 Jeep 72.053 0,6% 28.939 0,3% 149,0%
27 DS 62.578 0,5% 75.087 0,7% -16,7%
28 Porsche 59.934 0,5% 45.510 0,4% 31,7%
29 Lancia-Chrysler 52.852 0,4% 61.987 0,6% -14,7%
30 Alfa Romeo 47.908 0,4% 50.214 0,5% -4,6%
31 Jaguar 32.315 0,3% 24.798 0,2% 30,3%
32 Lexus 32.294 0,3% 24.711 0,2% 30,7%
33 Subaru 31.665 0,3% 28.933 0,3% 9,4%
34 SSangYong 11.706 0,1% 6.906 0,1% 69,5%
35 Tesla 11.148 0,1% 6.955 0,1% 60,3%
36 Maserati 5.386 0,0% 5.012 0,0% 7,5%
37 Infiniti 4.632 0,0% 3.200 0,0% 44,8%
38 SAIC MG 2.624 0,0% 2.028 0,0% 29,4%
39 Ferrari 2.401 0,0% 2.243 0,0% 7,0%
40 Bentley 2.088 0,0% 2.148 0,0% -2,8%
41 Chevrolet 1.863 0,0% 36.868 0,3% -94,9%
42 Lada 1.554 0,0% 1.295 0,0% 20,0%
43 Aston Martin 1.404 0,0% 1.355 0,0% 3,6%
44 Lamborghini 742 0,0% 483 0,0% 53,6%
45 Lotus 729 0,0% 538 0,0% 35,5%
46 Dodge 516 0,0% 609 0,0% -15,3%
47 Rolls Royce 515 0,0% 567 0,0% -9,2%
48 Cadillac 447 0,0% 320 0,0% 39,7%
49 Mahindra 439 0,0% 304 0,0% 44,4%
50 Tata 345 0,0% 374 0,0% -7,8%
51 DR 206 0,0% 228 0,0% -9,6%
52 Great Wall 130 0,0% 354 0,0% -63,3%
53 Bugatti 11 0,0% 12 0,0% -8,3%
54 Daihatsu 8 0,0% 8 0,0% 0,0%

 

  1. Great analysis Bart, thanks!

    I never understood why PSA separated DS from Citroen with existing models. Of course they will never be at the top of the sales statistics, because the majority of consumers is conservative, but in my opinion DS could have made more impact in Europe with a new model and not three of which the ‘youngest’, the DS 5, is four years old. The successor of the DS 4 will be a crossover. Smart move, the middle DS is unsuccessful and needs to be more different in relation to the C4.

    1. Because the role for Citroen next years is very different. In order to delimitate brands, PSA decided that Peugeot grow up in quality and performances (and price/profit), like VW. Citroen only will make utility cars, small SUV’s, MPV’s, minis…. with funny design, but not much technology or big power. They abandon hidracitve suspension (a historical and terrible mistake I think), and don’t will make cars bigger than a C4 Picasso. So, this new Citroen, near low cost is more like the 2CV or AMI 6 Citroen, and not like DS, CX or SM Citroen.
      DS has no space in this conditions. You can’t sell a luxury car, near a Cactus, with the same badge. So, the best is separate both brands in two different makers. In fact, since a year ago or so, DS has its own CEO and directives, is an independent compay.

      1. Hi xiquitinx,

        I think you misread my first sentence. Of course I understand why PSA separated DS and I support that, but I don’t understand why they did it with three existing models. For many years, the DS3/4/5 were Citroens, but after the facelifts they became DS models. A new model would have made more impact to introduce a new brand.

        For your information, in 2017 PSA will introduce a new suspension system for Citroen models. So don’t worry!

  2. Sorry Losange, english is not my native language. 😉

    Probably, the DS idea as a part of Citroen, was a mistake and when the economic problems put PSA in troubles, the new CEO Carlos Tavares had the big work to reorganize the group. I think that’s the moment when an independent DS idea takes form.

    I have curiosity about the new models from DS. I hope will be launched as soon as possible. And not only in China, like DS6.

    I read the news about hydractive suspension, and I’m very shocked for that. First, I have reserves about any Citroen will be equiped with a new suspension or any sophisticated technology as soon as 2017, I’m not so optimist. Second, Citroen has maybe one of the best suspension systems in the world that was given personality along decades to Citroen cars and PSA drop it to the trash. And when many people criticize that, Linda Jackson says don’t worry, we are developing a new suspension (what’s wrong with hydractive?), and we intended to fit it in all the range, but I think that’s not possible, I don’t believe in a Cactus or C3 with a sophisticated suspension.
    Anyway, we will see…

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