European car sales analysis March and Q1 2017 – brands

A record 1,92 million new cars were sold in Europe in March 2017. This is an increase of 10,5% over March last year and the highest monthly volume ever recorded. Part of the explanation for the surge in sales is that Easter fell in April this year instead of in March, like last year, which means dealers had extra selling days in 2017. Still, almost 2 million sales in a single month is an impressive figure and it even comes close to the 2,02 million sales in China this same month. March sales are usually around 11,5% of total annual volume, which extrapolates to an expected record 16,7 million sales in 2017. That would be an increase of 10,3% on 2015 and significantly higher than the previous record of 16,1 million sales in 2004.

All five of the big markets showed strong growth in March, with Italy (+18,2%), Spain (+12,6%) and Germany (+11,4%) leading the way with double digit gains, while the UK (+8,4%) and France (+7%) grow slightly slower than te rest of the market. 16 out of the 30 markets showed double digit gains and only 5 lost volume, all in single digits. The fastest growing market was Greece (+49,5%), recovering from its deep recession. In the first quarter, European car sales increased 7,8% to 4,22 million units. Italy was the fastest growing of the big markets at +11,9%.

March is a bit of a freak month for European car sales every year, as it is dominated by the UK market, due to the twice-yearly license plate change, this time to the “17” plates, which affects resales values and therefore incentivizes car buyers to postpone taking delivery of their new car until March. Over the course of an entire year, the UK makes up about 18% of total European sales, but in March this number rises to close to 30%. As a result, you will see the brand ranking also favors the brands that are relatively stronger in the UK than in the rest of Europe, which includes Ford, Opel/Vauxhall, Nissan and the British brands. For example Ford adds 2 percentage points of market share on February and Jaguar–Land Rover even doubles its market share.

Like in February, Renault-Nissan added the most volume of all manufacturers, this time followed by Volkswagen Group and Ford Motor Company, while in terms of relative growth both Aston Martin and Tesla Motors more than doubled their volumes and DRB-Hicom grew almost 50% with its Lotus sports car brand. The only manufacturers to lose volume in March were Honda, Mazda, Fuji Heavy Industries and Mahindra& Mahindra.

At brand level, Ford was the big volume winner this month, adding 21.735 sales, ahead of Renault and Mercedes-Benz, while Honda, DS and Mitsubishi lost the most volume of all brands. In relative terms, DS was the biggest loser with a loss of 32%, followed by Mahindra at -30,5% and Dodge, which is not even officially imported to Europe. Infiniti joins Aston Martin and Tesla among the brands that double up, and Rolls Royce gets also a mention for almost doubling its volume on last year.

March winners and losers

Manufacturer biggest volume increase	Renault-Nissan	32.287		Manufacturer biggest volume lost	Honda	-3.025
	Volkswagen Group	24.654			Mazda	-207
	Ford Motor Comp.	21.735			Fuji H.I. (Subaru)	-165
Manufacturer biggest % increase	Aston Martin	109,3%		Manufacturer biggest % lost	Honda	-12,1%
	Tesla Motors	101,3%			Fuji H.I. (Subaru)	-3,9%
	DRB-Hicom (Lotus)	48,7%			Mahindra& Mahindra	-1,8%
Brand biggest volume increase	Ford	21.735		Brand biggest volume lost	Honda	-3.025
	Renault	17.704			DS	-2.993
	Mercedes-Benz	15.336			Mitsubishi	-1.130
Brand biggest % increase	Aston Martin	109,3%		Brand biggest % lost	DS	-32,0%
	Infiniti	104,8%			Mahindra	-30,5%
	Tesla	101,3%			Dodge	-13,2%

Year-to-date, Renault-Nissan has already added over 50.000 units to its volume, and Volkswagen Group has added almost 42.000 units.FCA Fiat-Chrysler Automobiles has grown over 38.000 units. In relative growth, Aston Martin and Tesla both double up thanks to the DB11 and Model X, respectively. Suzuki grows almost 30%. On the other end of the scale, the only manufacturers to lose volume in Q1 of 2017 are Honda, Mazda and Fuji Heavy Industries, the latter by just 179 sales. 

Biggest winners among brands during the first three months of the year are Toyota thanks to the C-HR, followed by Fiat and Mercedes-Benz, while in relative terms we see Bugatti double up from 1 Veyron last year to 2 Chirons this year. DS is the big loser in Q1, both in absolute terms and in relative terms.

2017 Q1 winners and losers

Manufacturer biggest volume increase	Renault-Nissan	51.696		Manufacturer biggest volume lost	Honda	-5.075
	Volkswagen Group	41.970			Mazda	-3.397
	Fiat-Chrysler Automobiles	38.109			Fuji H.I. (Subaru)	-179
Manufacturer biggest % increase	Aston Martin	112,6%		Manufacturer biggest % lost	Honda	-10,3%
	Tesla Motors	111,8%			Mazda	-5,0%
	Suzuki	29,9%			Fuji H.I. (Subaru)	-1,9%
Brand biggest volume increase	Toyota	31.531		Brand biggest volume lost	DS	-6.739
	Fiat	28.402			Honda	-5.075
	Mercedes-Benz	28.089			Mazda	-3.397
Brand biggest % increase	Aston Martin	112,6%		Brand biggest % lost	DS	-33,4%
	Tesla	111,8%			Mahindra	-25,9%
	Bugatti	100,0%			Chevrolet	-21,4%

 

Out of the 52 brands currently on sale in Europe, no less than 26 have sold more cars in March than they’ve ever done in a single month in Europe. We’ll discuss which ones in a separate article on record-breaking March car sales. Market leader Volkswagen is up just 3,9% in March and therefore loses 0,6 percentage points of share. As usual in March, Ford is in a strong second place with sales up 15,9%, but while Renault doesn’t benefit as much from a strong UK market, the French brand still grows 14,9% and outsells Opel/Vauxhall for the first March in at least 5 years. The latter grows only 3,3% and loses 0,4 percentage points of market share on last year. Mercedes-Benz is back into 5th place as the fastest growing brand in the top-10, outselling not only its German luxury rivals but also Peugeot. Fiat, Nissan and Toyota all grow with double digits, with Nissan outselling the latter thanks to the UK market, where it produces most of its cars for the European market. Besides traditionally in March and September, the last time Nissan outsold its Japanese rival was in June 2015 and thanks to the very successful launch of the C-HR, it may not happen again soon, unless the new Micra becomes a bigger hit than anybody could expect. Kia and Seat grow with double digits, both helped by their latest crossover additions Niro and Ateca, and the Spanish brand outsells Dacia for the first time since last November.

Volvo and Land Rover grow by more than 20% and so does small car specialist Suzuki, now ahead of Honda for the 12th consecutive month. Jaguar gains 74% to outsell Mitsubishi for the first time ever. You read that right: Jaguar outsold Mitsubishi in Europe. In all of 2015, Mitsubishi sold 93.500 cars MORE than Jaguar, but in March 2017 the British brand has turned the tables. Of course this is only a temporary phenomenon due to the exceptional UK volume this month, but nonetheless an amazing achievement. Alfa Romeo grows 49% in March thanks to the arrival of the Stelvio and hopes to experience a similar growth curve as Jaguar now that it finally has an SUV too.

March brands ranking

	Brand	March 2017	March 2016	change	2017 share	2016 share
1	Volkswagen	186.246	179.221	3,9%	9,7%	10,3%
2	Ford	158.749	137.014	15,9%	8,3%	7,9%
3	Renault	136.608	118.904	14,9%	7,1%	6,8%
4	Opel/Vauxhall	129.834	125.700	3,3%	6,8%	7,2%
5	Mercedes-Benz	106.029	90.693	16,9%	5,5%	5,2%
6	Peugeot	104.068	97.520	6,7%	5,4%	5,6%
7	BMW	102.616	94.588	8,5%	5,3%	5,4%
8	Audi	99.085	94.402	5,0%	5,2%	5,4%
9	Fiat	98.599	84.697	16,4%	5,1%	4,9%
10	Nissan	90.770	77.867	16,6%	4,7%	4,5%
11	Toyota	83.123	69.176	20,2%	4,3%	4,0%
12	Skoda	71.960	66.815	7,7%	3,7%	3,8%
13	Citroën	67.859	62.397	8,8%	3,5%	3,6%
14	Hyundai	58.473	54.533	7,2%	3,0%	3,1%
15	Kia	53.111	47.249	12,4%	2,8%	2,7%
16	Seat	44.119	38.270	15,3%	2,3%	2,2%
17	Dacia	42.832	41.266	3,8%	2,2%	2,4%
18	Volvo	36.891	30.697	20,2%	1,9%	1,8%
19	Land Rover	32.663	26.837	21,7%	1,7%	1,5%
20	Mazda	30.476	30.683	-0,7%	1,6%	1,8%
21	Suzuki	28.097	23.017	22,1%	1,5%	1,3%
22	Mini	27.765	26.085	6,4%	1,4%	1,5%
23	Honda	21.998	25.023	-12,1%	1,1%	1,4%
24	Jaguar	14.271	8.227	73,5%	0,7%	0,5%
25	Mitsubishi	13.210	14.340	-7,9%	0,7%	0,8%
26	Jeep	11.756	10.620	10,7%	0,6%	0,6%
27	Smart	11.421	11.857	-3,7%	0,6%	0,7%
28	Alfa Romeo	9.427	6.328	49,0%	0,5%	0,4%
29	Porsche	9.259	7.454	24,2%	0,5%	0,4%
30	Lancia-Chrysler	8.379	7.274	15,2%	0,4%	0,4%
31	DS	6.370	9.363	-32,0%	0,3%	0,5%
32	Lexus	6.086	5.916	2,9%	0,3%	0,3%
33	Subaru	4.098	4.263	-3,9%	0,2%	0,2%
34	Tesla	3.885	1.930	101,3%	0,2%	0,1%
35	SSangYong	2.299	2.323	-1,0%	0,1%	0,1%
36	Infiniti	2.191	1.070	104,8%	0,1%	0,1%
37	Maserati	1.397	755	85,0%	0,1%	0,0%
38	SAIC MG	750	576	30,2%	0,0%	0,0%
39	Bentley	604	400	51,0%	0,0%	0,0%
40	Aston Martin	565	270	109,3%	0,0%	0,0%
41	Ferrari	442	348	27,0%	0,0%	0,0%
42	Lada	410	287	42,9%	0,0%	0,0%
43	Chevrolet	138	135	2,2%	0,0%	0,0%
44	Rolls Royce	122	62	96,8%	0,0%	0,0%
45	Lotus	113	76	48,7%	0,0%	0,0%
46	Lamborghini	91	86	5,8%	0,0%	0,0%
47	Cadillac	81	83	-2,4%	0,0%	0,0%
48	Dodge	59	68	-13,2%	0,0%	0,0%
49	DR	49	47	4,3%	0,0%	0,0%
50	Mahindra	41	59	-30,5%	0,0%	0,0%
51	Geely	10	0	–	0,0%	0,0%
52	Bugatti	1	1	0,0%	0,0%	0,0%

Year-to-date, Ford maintains its 2nd place above Renault but is unlikely to hold on to that for the next quarter, as the French brand outgrows it and is traditionally less strong in Q1. Volkswagen is the slowest growing brand in the top-10, followed by Audi and Opel/Vauxhall. Compared to Q1 of last year, Fiat and Mercedes-Benz both leapfrog BMW and Audi, while Toyota is the fastest growing brand in the top-10, kicking Skoda out of that ranking to #12, as the Czech brand is also outsold by Nissan. Honda also loses two positions, to Land Rover and Mini. Jaguar and Alfa Romeo are going to have an interesting heads-up battle against each other this year. Does anyone care to predict a winner? Lada enters the top-40 as the Russian brand is making a revival in Europe, even though it has a new sedan in showrooms with the Vesta, the brand’s best seller remains the antediluvian cult-SUV Niva.

	Brand	Q1 2017	change	2016 rank	2017 share	2016 share	change
1	Volkswagen	440.330	1,8%	1	10,4%	11,1%	7.882
2	Ford	311.891	8,2%	2	7,4%	7,4%	23.581
3	Renault	289.653	9,8%	4	6,9%	6,7%	25.889
4	Opel/Vauxhall	274.093	2,7%	3	6,5%	6,8%	7.095
5	Peugeot	244.057	4,3%	5	5,8%	6,0%	10.145
6	Mercedes-Benz	229.844	13,9%	8	5,4%	5,2%	28.089
7	Fiat	227.233	14,3%	9	5,4%	5,1%	28.402
8	Audi	220.216	2,6%	6	5,2%	5,5%	5.631
9	BMW	218.838	7,3%	7	5,2%	5,2%	14.909
10	Toyota	193.913	19,4%	11	4,6%	4,1%	31.531
11	Nissan	176.041	9,9%	12	4,2%	4,1%	15.812
12	Skoda	173.707	6,4%	10	4,1%	4,2%	10.431
13	Citroën	159.118	6,0%	13	3,8%	3,8%	8.939
14	Hyundai	132.708	5,9%	14	3,1%	3,2%	7.358
15	Kia	125.520	12,0%	15	3,0%	2,9%	13.485
16	Dacia	111.964	9,7%	16	2,7%	2,6%	9.924
17	Seat	101.733	18,0%	17	2,4%	2,2%	15.486
18	Volvo	80.071	14,0%	18	1,9%	1,8%	9.839
19	Mazda	64.432	-5,0%	19	1,5%	1,7%	-3.397
20	Suzuki	64.421	29,9%	20	1,5%	1,3%	14.813
21	Land Rover	53.805	9,3%	22	1,3%	1,3%	4.585
22	Mini	52.180	6,6%	23	1,2%	1,3%	3.227
23	Honda	44.341	-10,3%	21	1,1%	1,3%	-5.075
24	Mitsubishi	30.281	-7,2%	24	0,7%	0,8%	-2.344
25	Jeep	27.110	3,3%	26	0,6%	0,7%	866
26	Smart	25.734	-6,3%	25	0,6%	0,7%	-1.736
27	Jaguar	23.496	61,5%	31	0,6%	0,4%	8.948
28	Alfa Romeo	21.573	35,2%	30	0,5%	0,4%	5.618
29	Lancia-Chrysler	21.473	8,2%	28	0,5%	0,5%	1.619
30	Porsche	18.924	13,2%	29	0,4%	0,4%	2.202
31	DS	13.446	-33,4%	27	0,3%	0,5%	-6.739
32	Lexus	12.188	2,8%	32	0,3%	0,3%	328
33	Subaru	9.413	-1,9%	33	0,2%	0,2%	-179
34	Tesla	6.433	111,8%	35	0,2%	0,1%	3.396
35	SSangYong	4.987	1,8%	34	0,1%	0,1%	86
36	Infiniti	4.264	96,0%	36	0,1%	0,1%	2.089
37	Maserati	3.121	99,3%	37	0,1%	0,0%	1.555
38	Bentley	1.171	55,1%	39	0,0%	0,0%	416
39	SAIC MG	1.066	7,5%	38	0,0%	0,0%	74
40	Lada	1.014	47,4%	41	0,0%	0,0%	326
41	Aston Martin	948	112,6%	42	0,0%	0,0%	502
42	Ferrari	756	4,6%	40	0,0%	0,0%	33
43	Chevrolet	279	-21,4%	43	0,0%	0,0%	-76
44	Cadillac	229	10,6%	44	0,0%	0,0%	22
45	Rolls Royce	225	65,4%	48	0,0%	0,0%	89
46	Lotus	220	8,4%	45	0,0%	0,0%	17
47	Lamborghini	198	8,2%	46	0,0%	0,0%	15
48	Mahindra	123	-25,9%	47	0,0%	0,0%	-43
49	DR	121	-0,8%	50	0,0%	0,0%	-1
50	Dodge	112	-14,5%	49	0,0%	0,0%	-19
51	Geely	85	8400,0%	52	0,0%	0,0%	84
52	Great Wall	3	-88,9%	51	0,0%	0,0%	-24
53	Bugatti	2	100,0%	53	0,0%	0,0%	1

 

European car sales statistics are from the following countries: Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom. They exclude vehicles registered as commercial vehicles. Source: ANDC, JATO Dynamics