European car sales analysis January 2020 – brands

The European car market has started 2020 on a negative note as January 2020 sales are 5.9% lower than January 2019. This is a result of many registrations having been pulled forward into December 2019, especially those of gas guzzling models as per 2020 manufacturers will have to pay fines if their average fleet emissions are higher than the limits set by the EU. This averages 95 grams of CO2 per kilometer but varies slightly per manufacturer, based on the average weight of the vehicles sold. EVs and Plug-in hybrid vehicles with CO2 emissions of less than 49 grams per kilometer will be counted double this year and are therefore set to gain momentum in 2020, and the first signs of this are already becoming clear in the models ranking as we’ll discuss below. Demand for new passenger cars in the four major EU markets as well as the UK fell during the first month of 2020. France posted the strongest decline at -13.4%, followed by Spain (-7.6%), Germany (-7.3%) and Italy (-5.9%) while sales in the United Kingdom were down 7.3%.

Sales of car models (hatchback, sedan, stationwagon, coupe and convertible) were down 8% and their share of 55% is down slightly from January last year but higher than it was in the last three months of 2019. Crossover and SUV sales were down just 2% and their share of 39.3% is the fourth highest ever, after each of the three previous months. MPV sales were down 24.3% and their share of 5.7% of the European car market is the lowest it has been since at least two decades. Within these figures, sales of EVs and PHEVs more than double (+121%) to nearly 75,000 sales, almost a record and the first time since 2015 that sales of electrified vehicles more than double. PHEVs are doing the heavy lifting thanks to a slew of new model introductions and are up 174% vs. +89% for full electric vehicles, which still account for slightly over half (52%) of the total registrations of plug-in vehicles in Europe. The share of EVs and PHEVs is up to a record 6.6%, compared to just 3.6% in all of 2019.

January 2020 Manufacturers

BMW_3_series-auto-sales-statistics-EuropeIn the manufacturers ranking, Volkswagen Group continues to consolidate its leadership with a 2.8% increase while its two closest rivals are both down by double digits. Thanks to a gain of 5.8%, BMW AG jumps two spots to best of the rest ahead of Hyundai-Kia, down 9.5%. Toyota Motor is the biggest gainer among major manufacturers with sales up 11.9%, allowing it to leapfrog Daimler AG (-8.5%), Fiat Chrysler Automobiles (-6.6%) and Ford Motor Company (-17%) to take 6th place. That makes Ford the biggest loser in the manufacturers top-10. It’s also the lowest non-August monthly sales figure for Ford since February 2015. Geely is down 10.9% as Volvo is suffering from the end of production of the V40, while Tata Motors outperforms the market as its Jaguar and Land Rover brands are performing surprisingly well. Suzuki takes the biggest hit among the top-15 manufacturers as the brand is trimming its line-up, losing over one third of its sales, followed by Mazda which is down by almost 30% while Honda is the third worst performer at -19.3%. Tesla Motors has a relatively weak month in terms of absolute sales, as its figures are traditionally heavily skewed towards the third month of each quarter and also depend on the arrival of shipments as long as demand outstrips supply, but in relative terms it’s still the fastest growing manufacturer at +157.3%, just ahead of China’s SAIC which also more than doubles sales of its MG brand now that it’s sold in other markets than just the UK. Subaru is one of the manufacturers in major trouble with sales down 41% as it pre-registered a large number of unsold vehicles in December to reduce its emissions fines. It hit a monthly registrations record in December but that’s followed by a record low in January. Subaru’s sales might pick up again when its hybrid models arrive. General Motors appears to have given up on Europe entirely, considering its only remaining models (Cadillac, Camaro, Corvette, Tahoe) leave it vulnerable to heavy CO2 emissions fines for each model sold. It delivered just 16 vehicles in January.

Group Jan-20 Jan-19 change
1 Volkswagen Group 294.123 286.194 2,8%
2 PSA 178.290 201.504 -11,5%
3 Renault-Nissan 141.258 158.313 -10,8%
4 BMW AG 76.564 72.372 5,8%
5 Hyundai-Kia 75.296 83.173 -9,5%
6 Toyota Motor 70.772 63.254 11,9%
7 Daimler AG 66.947 73.176 -8,5%
8 Fiat-Chrysler Automobiles 66.236 70.930 -6,6%
9 Ford Motor Comp. 65.407 78.808 -17,0%
10 Geely Group 23.455 26.314 -10,9%
11 Tata Motors 17.557 17.821 -1,5%
12 Suzuki 13.300 20.726 -35,8%
13 Mazda 13.084 18.514 -29,3%
14 Honda 8.122 10.065 -19,3%
15 Tesla Motors 2.069 804 157,3%
16 SAIC 1.600 754 112,2%
17 Subaru Corp. 1.568 2.656 -41,0%
18 Mahindra & Mahindra 951 1.104 -13,9%
19 Aston Martin 165 236 -30,1%
20 General Motors 16 305 -94,8%

January 2020 Brands

At brand level, market leader Volkswagen performs slightly worse than the overall market at -4.2% while Peugeot is in second place for the third time in thirteen months, after January and February 2019, despite dipping slightly faster than the overall market at -7.2%. That leaves Renault in third place with sales down 5.6%, just ahead of Mercedes-Benz with stable sales. After beating Opel/Vauxhall for the first time ever in October 2019, Toyota outsells Ford for the very first time ever in Europe thanks to a gain of 10.6% for the Japanese brand vs. a loss of 17% for the American brand. BMW is up 10.5% and stays ahead of Skoda and Audi, while Opel/Vauxhall loses almost a quarter of its sales now that it has stopped sales of its small cars Karl/Viva and Adam, leaving it in 10th place. Citroën moves with the market at -5.5% while Fiat finally manages to outperform the market at -2.9%, keeping it ahead of Hyundai. Seat is up 10% to move ahead of Kia, down 13.4% and Dacia, down 27.3%. Nissan appears to have hit rock bottom as it outperforms the market and almost stabilizes at -2.2%.

Mini is down more than double the overall market, while Land Rover and Mitsubishi are stable. Jeep is down 11.6% while fellow FCA brand Lancia slightly outperforms the market at -5.4%. Porsche continues its recovery, up 64.3% on January 2019 although it’s still down 17.6% on January 2018. Lexus (+31.6%) continues its hot streak of 12 monthly improvements in the last 13 months while DS extends its winning streak to 9 consecutive months at +50.7%. In contrast, Alfa Romeo is back into the red at less than 44% of its January 2018 registrations. Since it’s been turned into an EV-only brand, Smart sales have collapsed with a 87.9% decline in sales to just 880 deliveries, in contrast to December’s record month of nearly 15,500 registrations.

Brand Jan-20 Jan-19 change
1 Volkswagen 131.217 136.910 -4,2%
2 Peugeot 74.891 80.714 -7,2%
3 Renault 67.208 71.176 -5,6%
4 Mercedes-Benz 66.067 65.891 0,3%
5 Toyota 65.801 59.477 10,6%
6 Ford 65.407 78.808 -17,0%
7 BMW 63.731 57.678 10,5%
8 Skoda 58.901 55.837 5,5%
9 Audi 58.186 53.506 8,7%
10 Opel/Vauxhall 51.095 67.411 -24,2%
11 Citroën 47.351 50.093 -5,5%
12 Fiat 45.243 46.576 -2,9%
13 Hyundai 40.278 42.720 -5,7%
14 Seat 39.707 36.097 10,0%
15 Kia 35.018 40.453 -13,4%
16 Dacia 31.252 42.990 -27,3%
17 Nissan 31.247 31.938 -2,2%
18 Volvo 23.435 26.283 -10,8%
19 Suzuki 13.300 20.726 -35,8%
20 Mazda 13.084 18.514 -29,3%
21 Mini 12.772 14.607 -12,6%
22 Land Rover 12.370 12.297 0,6%
23 Mitsubishi 11.232 11.129 0,9%
24 Jeep 10.545 11.931 -11,6%
25 Honda 8.122 10.065 -19,3%
26 Lancia 6.254 6.614 -5,4%
27 Porsche 5.496 3.346 64,3%
28 Jaguar 5.187 5.524 -6,1%
29 Lexus 4.971 3.777 31,6%
30 DS 4.953 3.286 50,7%
31 Alfa Romeo 3.375 4.960 -32,0%
32 Tesla 2.069 804 157,3%
33 SAIC MG 1.600 754 112,2%
34 Subaru 1.568 2.656 -41,0%
35 Smart 880 7.285 -87,9%
36 SSangYong 794 1.018 -22,0%
37 Bentley 402 303 32,7%
38 Maserati 353 481 -26,6%
39 Ferrari 341 245 39,2%
40 DR Motor 313 244 28,3%
41 Lada 216 343 -37,0%
42 Lamborghini 180 181 -0,6%
43 Aston Martin 165 236 -30,1%
44 Mahindra 157 86 82,6%
45 Infiniti 103 307 -66,4%
46 Alpine 67 430 -84,4%
47 Rolls Royce 61 87 -29,9%
48 Dodge 59 66 -10,6%
49 Great Wall 20 0 New
50 Lotus 18 29 -37,9%
51 Chrysler 6 13 -53,8%
52 Bugatti 2 3 -33,3%
53 Geely 2 2 0,0%
54 Cadillac 1 138 -99,3%

European car sales statistics are from the following countries: Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom. They exclude vehicles registered as commercial vehicles. Source: ANDC, JATO Dynamics