Sales of large SUVs in Europe have been in a downward trend in recent years and that trend continues in the first quarter of 2019 with a decline of 27% in deliveries as this remains the smallest segment of the European car market with fewer than 10.000 sales in the first three months of the year. Interestingly, this same segment is one of the largest in the United States representing over 12% of the total market with just over 500.000 sales in the first quarter, compared to just 0,2% of the European market. Every single nameplate in this class loses volume in Q1 of 2019 and four out of six are down by double digits with the remaining two down by single digits, both helped by recent model updates. The top-3 has been turned upside down with the new generation Hyundai Santa Fe reclaiming the top spot it last held in 2016, even though its sales are still down by 6%. The Santa Fe improves its share of the segment to 26,1% but its sibling Kia Sorento is still very close behind in second place despite losing more than a quarter of its sales. Hyundai-Kia now holds more than half of this segment as the 2017 leader Ford Edge sees its sales plummet by more than a third. The recently facelifted Toyota Land Cruiser gains share as its deliveries are down by just 9%, while the SsangYong Rexton is already down 30% despite still being the second freshest model in the class. The Mitsubishi Pajero (Montero in Spain, Shogun in the UK and Ireland) is down 78% after struggling with the new WLTP standards.
The compact crossovers segment in Europe has been growing briskly in recent years, but in the first quarter of 2019 that growth has stalled as the segment grew by just 1% to 476.000 sales. That means it now makes up 11,7% of the total Euorpean car market, up from 11,1% in 2018. We’ve separated the tables of the compact and midsized crossover segments but still feature them in one post and in one graph as the models in these classes are so close to each other in size and there are so many different opinions on which models belong in which of these segments. Combined, sales in these segments are down 1,5% to 14,2% of the total European car market, and VW Group improves its share of these segments to 23,7% while Renault-Nissan is down to 20,6% and PSA grows to 18,8% of these segments combined, for a whopping 63,1% share by just three manufacturers. The traditional class leader Nissan Qashqai loses a significant chunk of its advantage over its rivals with a loss of 18% and almost 3 percentage points of share. The Volkswagen Tiguan in 2nd place is also down, but by just 4% while the #3 Peugeot 3008 sees stable sales and therefore closes in on its two rivals. The Ford Kuga loses more than a fifth of its sales and is knocked off its 4th place by the Toyota C-HR, up 13%. The C-HR also passes the two South-Korean players Hyundai Tucson and Kia Sportage, both down by double digits. The Renault Kadjar, freshly facelifted, is down 4% and feels the Skoda Karoq and Opel/Vauxhall Grandland X breathing down its neck.
Sales of small crossovers in Europe continue their booming growth curve in 2019 with another double digit gain in the first quarter. An increase of 11% leads to nearly 570.000 sales which means we’re very likely to see over 2 million sales in this segment this year for the first time ever. This segment already accounts for 14% of the overall European car market, up another two percentage points in a single year. That means this segment is closing in on the compact car segment (the “Golf class”) to become Europe’s second largest segment after the subcompact cars. No wonder manufacturers that are not playing in this class yet are rushing to join the party, while existing brands are doubling down on their efforts. As a result, it’s not only one of the biggest segments in terms of volume, but also in the number of players, with no less than 29 and another handful of newcomers arriving this year. And we also have a new player on top of the charts, with the Volkswagen T-Roc beating its rivals to the #1 spot just a year after its launch. It now holds 10% of the segment, but the former leader Renault Captur is not far behind, just 1.000 sales separate the two models and the Captur still manages to increase its sales despite having the second generation ready for launch in the second half of this year. As a result of that model change, the T-Roc looks set for a full-year victory to knock the Captur of the top spot it held for five years.
The large MPV segment in Europe lost volume for the 9th consecutive quarter in Q1 of 2019 with an 11% decline to just over 25.000 sales. European families, businesses and car rental companies continue to lose interest in this type of vehicle and the future of the segment looks bleak as fewer brands see profitability at these volumes while 7-seat crossovers cannibalize their MPV rivals, even though the latter are still way more space efficient and practical. Of the six remaining players in this segment, only one manages to improve its sales with four of the other five down by double digits. Like last year, the Seat Alhambra starts the year promisingly on top of the ranking, a position it was unable to maintain for the entire year. With a loss of 13%, the Alhambra loses faster than the overall segment, which is not surprising considering it’s also the oldest model in the class, together with its identical twin Volkswagen Sharan. Then again, the Sharan is down by just 3% and increases its share of the segment, as VW Group now holds 49% of all large MPV sales in Europe. The segment best seller for the past three years, the Ford S-Max loses 15% of its sales and is for now relegated to the #2 spot. The S-Max may strike back later this year unless Ford decides to pull the plug on its large MPVs early.
Sales of midsized MPVs in Europe are on track to a fourth consecutive and their largest annual decline, starting 2019 with 27% fewer deliveries than in the first quarter of 2018. Just under 128.000 midsized MPVs were sold and delivered in these three months as only three nameplates managed to improve their sales on last year. Besides the competition from crossovers, it appears some potential MPV buyers are also cross shopping with van-based MPVs like the new Citroën Berlingo and Peugeot Rifter as these balance their lower refinement with a lower price and more practicality. The fact that Opel/Vauxhall is not replacing the Zafira but giving its new van that same name instead is another indication of this trend. After ceding its top spot to the Renault Scenic in 2018, the Volkswagen Touran is back on top of the ranking in 2019, even though both models are down by exactly the same percentage in Q1, at -21%. That means both also improve their share of the segment significantly, while their nearest rivals from the last few years tumble hard. The Citroën C4 Picasso (now renamed C4 Spacetourer) loses 42% of its volume as the former segment leader (2014 and 2015) is down into 5th place. And with the arrival of the brand’s first compact crossover C5 Aircross, the bleeding isn’t yet over for the C4 Picasso. In fact, production of the 5-seater version will end and only the 7-seater Grand version will continue to be sold, as the brand doesn’t yet offer a 7-seat crossover.
The compact car segment in Europe is in faster decline than the overall market in the first quarter of 2019, with a loss of 14% to 528.363 sales, as Europe’s second largest segment now accounts for 13% of the total market, down from 14,3% in Q1 of 2018. That means it is under threat from the small crossover segment (up 11% to 14% share of the market). This is also one of the main reasons for the decline of the compact car segment: customers deflecting to crossovers. Segment best seller Volkswagen Golf is due for a redesign this year and loses 16% of its volume but still holds a commanding lead over its competition. In second place we now find the Ford Focus with sales up 8% thanks to its new generation, outselling the Skoda Octavia by a significant margin and thus ending a two-year period with the VW Group in the top two spots. The last time another manufacturer held a top-2 position in this segment was 2016 when the Opel/Vauxhall Astra was the Golf’s nearest rival, but so far this year the Astra is down into 5th place with sales down 18%. The Peugeot 308 moves up a spot to #4 despite also losing volume, but improves its share of the segment by 0,7 percentage points. The Seat Leon and Renault Megane also do slightly better than the overall segment but are still down by double digits, while the Kia Ceed is up an impressive 35%, helped by the addition of the Sportswagon and ProCeed versions. This moves the Ceed into 8th place, its highest ever ranking in the compact car segment in Europe.
The midsized car segment in Europe accelerates its decline in 2019 with a 25% decrease in deliveries in the first quarter, to less than 100.000 cars. This is now just 2,4% of the European car market as just two out of the 12 available nameplates improve their sales in the first quarter. The segment which sold nearly 1 million units as recently as 10 years ago is now down even further on whar already was its lowest volume ever. Interestingly, the luxury midsized car segment is down by just 3% so far this year and is 60% larger than these mainstream models. Even more telling for the state of this segment is that the recently launched all-electric Tesla Model 3 delivered more units in March than any nameplate in this segment in Europe. To be fair, of course this reflects deliveries of vehicles ordered over the course of the last few years and therefore can not be directly compared until Tesla has fulfilled all pre-orders and starts normal deliveries. The traditional segment leader Volkswagen Passat falls faster than the overall segment and is down to below 30% share, which is still a dominant position. Its sibling Skoda Superb is the only model in the top-4 to improve its share of the segment with sales down “just” 14% while the Opel/Vauxhall Insignia and Ford Mondeo both lose a quarter of their sales, right on par with the segment as a whole. Big winner is the all-new Peugeot 508 with its well-received design. The 508 came close to outselling the Mondeo in February and should become a podium contender when it reaches full availability of all versions.
After a stable 2018, sales of subcompact cars in Europe declined by 8% in Q1 of 2019, to 749.634 deliveries. Europe’s largest segment by volume now accounts for 18,4% of the total market. The Renault Clio holds on to its top spot despite being replaced by a new generation this year while its closest two rivals have already been updated recently. The French hatchback (and station wagon) delivers 2% fewer vehicles this year, which enables it to keep a significant distance to the #2 Volkswagen Polo while clearly distancing the former segment leader Ford Fiesta, which is down 24% as the new generation celebrates its first birthday. The Fiesta is now nearly outsold by the Opel/Vauxhall Corsa which is also due for a redesign this year but manages a 12% improvement, probably thanks to discounts and rental company sales. The car on which the next generation Corsa will be based, the Peugeot 208, is down 11% as it too will be replaced this year. There are less than 5.000 sales separating the #3 and the #7 in this segment, and as you see there will be quite a few model changes this year, so it promises to be a volatile ranking in 2019. The Toyota Yaris has improved every year for the past five years and shows no sign of ending that streak in 2019 with a 3% gain in the first quarter, which means it actually gains 0,8 percentage points of share of the segment. The Citroën C3 also continues to improve with a 2% gain on the first quarter of last year.
The minicar segment in Europe continues its decline in the first quarter of 2019, although it has lost less than the overall market. In the first three months of 2019, European car buyers took delivery of 331.285 minicars, a 3% loss on 2018. The share of the total European car market is slightly up from 8,0% to 8,1% as the overall market showed an even stronger decline. Fiat’s dominance in this segment shrinks to a share of 29,7% with its two models, compared to 30% in Q1 of 2018 but up on the 28,7% for the full year 2018. Surprisingly, the aging Panda gained 12% of sales this year and reclaims the top spot from its equally old sibling 500 which is the biggest loser in the segment top-15. This is a worrying trend for the already struggling Italian brand as the 500 has been the cork that kept Fiat afloat for the past decade and more. We find a surprise in third place as the Toyota Aygo knocks the Volkswagen Up! off the podium for the first time since the launch of the latter in 2012. The Aygo sees stable sales this year with a 1% gain while the Up! is down 11% into fourth place. The Renault Twingo loses a similar percentage and holds on to 5th place by the skin of its teeth as the Kia Picanto is up 10% and just 42 sales behind. The Twingo has just received a minor facelift and should be able to distance the Picanto later this year again. The Hyundai i10 also loses by double digits as a next generation is just around the corner. [Read more…]
After a 7% decline in January and a 2,6% decline in February, European new car sales were down by 3,7% in March 2019, to 1,76 million sales. For the first quarter of the year, sales are down 4,4% to 4,07 million units. Most of the decline can still be attributed to the after effects of the introduction of new fuel efficiency and emissions testing standard called WLTP (Worldwide harmonized Light vehicle Test Procedure) in September. March sales figures are traditionally heavily influenced by the UK market, for which this is the highest volume month of the year by far. Fortunately, despite all the uncertainties facing this market, its decline was not as bad as generally expected. However, all major European markets were in the red in March, as Italy posted the highest percentage drop (-9,6%), followed by Spain (-4,3%), the United Kingdom (-3,4%), France (-2,3%) and Germany (-0,5%). Just nine out of the 30 countries of the EU and EFTA showed growth in March, with the fastest growing markets Lithuania (+43,8%), Denmark (+33,2%), Norway (+27,6%), and Romania (+20,8%). In the first quarter registrations remained almost flat in Germany (+0,2%), while the other key markets performed worse than in the first quarter of 2018, most notably Spain (-6,9%) and Italy (-6,5%).