European car sales analysis September 2017 – brands

After four months of growth, new car sales in Europe are down again, by 2,1% to 1,46 million sales in September 2017. This is only the second time this year that the European car market is in negative territory, and the year-to-date figure is now down to +3,3%, the lowest it has been so far this year. September is still the second best month so far this year, after March and just ahead of May. A total of 11,9 million cars have been sold in the first nine months of 2017, which is close to the 2013 full year figure of 12,3 million sales. Among the five biggest markets, Italy (+8,1%) and Spain (+4,6%) once again showed the strongest improvements, while France was stable at +1,1%, but Germany (-3,3%) and the United Kingdom (-9,3%) are pulling the market down. They are not the only one, as 11 out of the 30 countries of the EU and EFTA saw their sales decline, of which Denmark (-22,2%), Latvia (-20,8%) and Ireland (-17%) by double digits. Year-to-date, Italy (+9%), Spain (+6,7%), France (+3,9%) and Germany (+2,2%) continue to grow so far in 2017, but UK car demand fell by 3,9%

Surprisingly, tiny Suzuki Motors is the manufacturer that adds the most volume in September, ahead of juggernauts Renault-Nissan and Toyota Motor. All add between 2.500 and 4.000 sales, so small gains this month. On the other end of the spectrum we do see a few large declines, most notably those of Ford Motor Company and PSA-Opel, which each lose more than 12.500 sales compared to September 2016. Looking at relative growth, Tesla Motors is firing on all its kilowatts with a gain of 46%, ahead of Aston Martin and Suzuki, while Mahindra & Mahindra is the fastest declining manufacturer due to its ownership of SsangYong and loses more than a third of its Eurpoean volume. Honda and SAIC MG are also on the wrong end of the list with double digit declines.

At brand level, Suzuki is also the big winner, adding more volume than any other brand, including Seat and Dacia, which each add about 2.800 sales. Ford is the big loser at brand level too, as it suffers from a slow changeover to the new generation of its best seller Fiesta. Opel/Vauxhall loses more than 10.000 sales as well and has been in a slump ever since the brands have been taken over by PSA. Doomsday thinkers may point out that German and UK car buyers, which make up the biggest portion of sales for the former General Motors subsidiary, may have less taste for the models now that they fall under French ownership, but a large part of the explanation is simply that GM used to artificially pump up sales of Opel and Vauxhall with high discounts, sales to daily rental fleets and even self-registrations. Carlos Tavares, the CEO of PSA, is more interested in building the brands and making a good margin then in chasing volume. This automatically implies volumes will take a big initial hit before slowly recovering when the brands become stronger again and more importantly: profitable. It will be interesting to see how deep Opel/Vauxhall is allowed to sink before the planned recovery starts.

Honda remains in a slump as it sinks into irrelevance in Europe, such a contrasting performance for the brand that’s still so hugely successful in China and the US, as in each of those markets it sold almost as many cars just in September than it’s expected to sell in the entire year of 2017 in Europe. In relative terms Tesla, Chevrolet and Aston Martin are the fastest growing brands, each adding more than a third to its sales of last year, while Lotus (which ironically also just had a change of ownership, to China’s Geely), SsangYong and Cadillac all lose more than a third of their sales of last year.

September winners and losers

Manufacturer biggest volume increase	Suzuki	3.915		Manufacturer biggest volume lost	Ford Motor Comp.	-15.882
	Renault-Nissan	3.007			PSA-Opel	-12.848
	Toyota Motor	2.558			Honda	-3.568
Manufacturer biggest % increase	Tesla Motors	46,0%		Manufacturer biggest % lost	Mahindra & Mahindra	-35,7%
	Aston Martin	33,5%			Honda	-18,0%
	Suzuki	18,6%			SAIC MG	-16,2%
Brand biggest volume increase	Suzuki	3.915		Brand biggest volume lost	Ford	-15.882
	Seat	2.877			Opel/Vauxhall	-10.251
	Dacia	2.822			Volkswagen	-4.244
Brand biggest % increase	Tesla	46,0%		Brand biggest % lost	Lotus	-46,8%
	Chevrolet	40,5%			SsangYong	-37,0%
	Aston Martin	33,5%			Cadillac	-35,5%

 

Year-to-date, Renault-Nissan is still the big winner, adding almost 90.000 sales to its tally of the first 9 months of 2016, followed by Toyota Motor and FCA Fiat-Chrysler Automobiles, while Honda and Mazda are joined in the losers isle by Ford Motor Company, which has dipped significantly in the red after a horrendous month of September. No changes in the rankings of relative winners and losers, with Aston Martin, Tesla Motors and General Motors as the three fastest growing manufacturers from their low bases, while Honda, Mahindra & Mahindra show double digit declines so far this year, followed by Subaru.

Toyota is the biggest gainer among brands, expanding its advantage over Mercedes-Benz, with Fiat in a stable third place. Opel/Vauxhall dealers have already sold almost 31.000 fewer cars since the beginning of this year, but keep in mind it the brand had gained 7.000 sales in the first quarter of this year and lost almost 25.000 sales just in the last 4 months. Volkswagen and DS are also among the big losers, at -18.000 sales or worse, although that means just -1,4% for VW but a third of the volume for DS. Chinese/Italian DR Motor and India’s Mahindra lose by double digits from their already low sales.

January-September winners and losers

Manufacturer biggest volume increase	Renault-Nissan	89.178		Manufacturer biggest volume lost	Honda	-16.657
	Toyota Motor	67.464			Ford Motor Comp.	-13.243
	Fiat-Chrysler Automobiles	61.280			Mazda	-7.848
Manufacturer biggest % increase	Aston Martin	84,5%		Manufacturer biggest % lost	Honda	-13,0%
	Tesla Motors	72,7%			Mahindra & Mahindra	-12,0%
	General Motors	40,0%			Subaru Corp.	-7,7%
Brand biggest volume increase	Toyota	67.554		Brand biggest volume lost	Opel/Vauxhall	-30.859
	Mercedes-Benz	62.481			Volkswagen	-18.791
	Fiat	46.250			DS	-17.960
Brand biggest % increase	Aston Martin	84,5%		Brand biggest % lost	DS	-33,4%
	Tesla	72,7%			DR Motor	-13,9%
	Chevrolet	52,9%			Mahindra	-13,3%

 

If last month Mercedes-Benz was able to snag a record 2nd place in the brand ranking, in September it returns to the 4th place it also held in July and which was a record high ranking at that time. The German luxury brand has now outsold Opel/Vauxhall for three consecutive months, although the difference in September is only marginal. Renault manages to outsell Ford in what is usually a pretty strong month for the American brand that has a more than average dependency on the UK market, whose weakness this month in combination with the Fiesta model change have resulted in a 14,6% loss for the brand and only a third place barely ahead of Mercedes-Benz. It also means that the likeliness of Ford recovering to 2nd place in the brands ranking by the end of the year is officially close to zero. BMW is back ahead of Audi and Peugeot in September, while Fiat re-enters the top-10 after a one-month hiatus, kicking out Toyota which even falls behind Nissan for only the second time this year.

After an impressive 12th place in August, Dacia is back down to 16th place in September, despite growing faster than any brand ahead of it at +8,8%. Seat pulls of the same in 17th place and closes in on the Romanian brand, and Suzuki traditionally has a relatively weak ranking in September so is down to 21st behind Mazda despite being the fastest growing brand in the top-30. Jaguar outsells Alfa Romeo for only the second time this year thanks to its dependence on the UK market which has seasonal peaks in March and September. Tesla came within 4 sales of outperforming DS for the first time ever, but at least the American EV maker outsold both Subaru and Lancia for the first time ever.

September brands ranking

	Brand	sep-17	sep-16	change	2017 share	2016 share
1	Volkswagen	156.787	161.031	-2,6%	10,8%	10,8%
2	Renault	95.109	96.675	-1,6%	6,5%	6,5%
3	Ford	92.677	108.559	-14,6%	6,4%	7,3%
4	Mercedes-Benz	92.492	91.762	0,8%	6,3%	6,2%
5	Opel/Vauxhall	92.267	102.518	-10,0%	6,3%	6,9%
6	BMW	86.629	87.453	-0,9%	5,9%	5,9%
7	Audi	78.677	81.795	-3,8%	5,4%	5,5%
8	Peugeot	76.098	77.309	-1,6%	5,2%	5,2%
9	Fiat	65.140	67.108	-2,9%	4,5%	4,5%
10	Skoda	64.747	62.493	3,6%	4,4%	4,2%
11	Nissan	64.106	61.834	3,7%	4,4%	4,1%
12	Toyota	63.519	60.829	4,4%	4,4%	4,1%
13	Hyundai	51.992	51.079	1,8%	3,6%	3,4%
14	Citroën	45.437	45.017	0,9%	3,1%	3,0%
15	Kia	44.666	44.500	0,4%	3,1%	3,0%
16	Dacia	34.949	32.127	8,8%	2,4%	2,2%
17	Seat	32.313	29.436	9,8%	2,2%	2,0%
18	Volvo	27.146	27.334	-0,7%	1,9%	1,8%
19	Mazda	25.242	27.164	-7,1%	1,7%	1,8%
20	Mini	24.999	26.363	-5,2%	1,7%	1,8%
21	Suzuki	24.968	21.053	18,6%	1,7%	1,4%
22	Land Rover	20.870	21.268	-1,9%	1,4%	1,4%
23	Honda	16.209	19.777	-18,0%	1,1%	1,3%
24	Jeep	10.599	10.343	2,5%	0,7%	0,7%
25	Mitsubishi	9.815	10.394	-5,6%	0,7%	0,7%
26	Smart	8.931	9.720	-8,1%	0,6%	0,7%
27	Jaguar	8.093	9.675	-16,4%	0,6%	0,6%
28	Alfa Romeo	8.043	6.941	15,9%	0,6%	0,5%
29	Porsche	6.142	6.786	-9,5%	0,4%	0,5%
30	Lexus	5.913	6.046	-2,2%	0,4%	0,4%
31	DS	4.685	6.491	-27,8%	0,3%	0,4%
32	Tesla	4.682	3.206	46,0%	0,3%	0,2%
33	Lancia-Chrysler	4.660	5.397	-13,7%	0,3%	0,4%
34	Subaru	3.508	3.804	-7,8%	0,2%	0,3%
35	SSangYong	1.366	2.167	-37,0%	0,1%	0,1%
36	Infiniti	980	1.024	-4,3%	0,1%	0,1%
37	SAIC MG	842	1.005	-16,2%	0,1%	0,1%
38	Maserati	674	926	-27,2%	0,0%	0,1%
39	Lada	430	328	31,1%	0,0%	0,0%
40	Bentley	367	455	-19,3%	0,0%	0,0%
41	Aston Martin	207	155	33,5%	0,0%	0,0%
42	Chevrolet	163	116	40,5%	0,0%	0,0%
43	Ferrari	149	204	-27,0%	0,0%	0,0%
44	Lamborghini	99	90	10,0%	0,0%	0,0%
45	Rolls Royce	66	100	-34,0%	0,0%	0,0%
46	Dodge	56	58	-3,4%	0,0%	0,0%
47	Lotus	50	94	-46,8%	0,0%	0,0%
48	Cadillac	49	76	-35,5%	0,0%	0,0%
49	Geely	34	24	41,7%	0,0%	0,0%
50	Mahindra	33	8	312,5%	0,0%	0,0%
51	DR	27	30	-10,0%	0,0%	0,0%
52	Bugatti	2	2	0,0%	0,0%	0,0%

 

In the year-to-date ranking, the top-3 positions seem all but guaranteed to remain as is for the rest of the year, and even despite its good run lately, Mercedes-Benz is unlikely to finish 2017 ahead of Opel/Vauxhall. BMW has moved back into 8th place ahead of Fiat, while Nissan has leapfrogged Citroën in September to reclaim 12th place and Kia has done the same with Dacia for 15th place.

January – September brands ranking

	Brand	2017	2016	change	2017 share	2016 share	2016 rank
1	Volkswagen	1.286.167	1.304.958	-1,4%	10,8%	11,3%	1
2	Renault	846.456	811.611	4,3%	7,1%	7,0%	3
3	Ford	799.604	812.845	-1,6%	6,7%	7,1%	2
4	Opel/Vauxhall	737.991	768.850	-4,0%	6,2%	6,7%	4
5	Mercedes-Benz	696.740	634.259	9,9%	5,9%	5,5%	7
6	Peugeot	689.478	663.050	4,0%	5,8%	5,8%	5
7	Audi	637.119	636.568	0,1%	5,4%	5,5%	6
8	BMW	624.844	615.094	1,6%	5,3%	5,3%	8
9	Fiat	621.033	574.783	8,0%	5,2%	5,0%	9
10	Skoda	528.408	497.819	6,1%	4,4%	4,3%	10
11	Toyota	523.490	455.936	14,8%	4,4%	4,0%	11
12	Nissan	447.384	425.789	5,1%	3,8%	3,7%	12
13	Citroën	440.881	424.313	3,9%	3,7%	3,7%	13
14	Hyundai	389.621	380.698	2,3%	3,3%	3,3%	14
15	Kia	356.235	338.611	5,2%	3,0%	2,9%	15
16	Dacia	349.103	315.959	10,5%	2,9%	2,7%	16
17	Seat	299.749	262.026	14,4%	2,5%	2,3%	17
18	Volvo	223.590	208.409	7,3%	1,9%	1,8%	18
19	Suzuki	185.057	151.791	21,9%	1,6%	1,3%	21
20	Mazda	177.914	185.762	-4,2%	1,5%	1,6%	19
21	Mini	160.536	159.296	0,8%	1,3%	1,4%	20
22	Land Rover	132.829	130.937	1,4%	1,1%	1,1%	22
23	Honda	111.122	127.779	-13,0%	0,9%	1,1%	23
24	Mitsubishi	88.221	89.126	-1,0%	0,7%	0,8%	24
25	Jeep	78.224	79.514	-1,6%	0,7%	0,7%	26
26	Smart	74.534	80.168	-7,0%	0,6%	0,7%	25
27	Alfa Romeo	66.517	48.469	37,2%	0,6%	0,4%	31
28	Porsche	56.526	52.709	7,2%	0,5%	0,5%	28
29	Jaguar	55.418	50.426	9,9%	0,5%	0,4%	30
30	Lancia-Chrysler	49.092	52.676	-6,8%	0,4%	0,5%	29
31	DS	35.737	53.697	-33,4%	0,3%	0,5%	27
32	Lexus	34.221	34.312	-0,3%	0,3%	0,3%	32
33	Subaru	26.203	28.381	-7,7%	0,2%	0,2%	33
34	Tesla	19.069	11.041	72,7%	0,2%	0,1%	35
35	SSangYong	13.384	15.195	-11,9%	0,1%	0,1%	34
36	Infiniti	10.527	10.904	-3,5%	0,1%	0,1%	36
37	Maserati	7.501	5.452	37,6%	0,1%	0,0%	37
38	Lada	3.805	2.929	29,9%	0,0%	0,0%	39
39	SAIC MG	3.322	3.307	0,5%	0,0%	0,0%	38
40	Bentley	3.103	2.703	14,8%	0,0%	0,0%	40
41	Ferrari	2.074	2.344	-11,5%	0,0%	0,0%	41
42	Aston Martin	2.048	1.110	84,5%	0,0%	0,0%	43
43	Chevrolet	2.041	1.335	52,9%	0,0%	0,0%	42
44	Lamborghini	753	775	-2,8%	0,0%	0,0%	44
45	Cadillac	673	564	19,3%	0,0%	0,0%	47
46	Lotus	633	674	-6,1%	0,0%	0,0%	45
47	Rolls Royce	560	594	-5,7%	0,0%	0,0%	46
48	Dodge	448	480	-6,7%	0,0%	0,0%	48
49	Mahindra	327	377	-13,3%	0,0%	0,0%	49
50	DR	315	366	-13,9%	0,0%	0,0%	50
51	Geely	196	65	201,5%	0,0%	0,0%	51
52	Bugatti	12	5	140,0%	0,0%	0,0%	52

 

European car sales statistics are from the following countries: Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom. They exclude vehicles registered as commercial vehicles. Source: ANDC, JATO Dynamics