Compact car battle: Megane vs. Astra, with poll

Renault_Megane-Opel_Astra-European-auto-sales-statistics-October-2015Two important players in the compact segment in Europe will be renewed next year: the Opel/Vauxhall has just arrived in showrooms in November/December and the Renault Megane will follow in March. Both models play a big role in their segment and are important for the volume of their respective brands.

Opel_Astra-2016-European-sales-estimateWith the traditional and distant leader of the compact segment Volkswagen Golf vulnerable as a result of the Diesel Schandal, and the facelifted Ford Focus and Skoda Octavia no longer the freshest models in the top of the ranking, the Astra is predicted to take a significant bite out of the dominance of the Golf with just over 300.000 sales and take second place of the segment. Meanwhile, with customer deliveries not expected to fully take off before Q2, the Megane should rack up just below 200.000 sales in 2016, enough for a top-5 position ahead of the Peugeot 308. As a result of these two newcomers, the Golf is expected to lose volume and finish 2016 with less than half a million sales and 2017 below 400.000 sales, when the station wagon versions of the Astra and Megane will give these models an extra boost.

Renault_Megane-Opel_Astra-sales_figures-1997-2015

Renault_Megane-2016-European-sales-estimateThese figures are still well below their best years, with the Astra peaking at 670.000 units in 1999 and 512.000 sales in 2005, and the Megane reaching 465.000 sales in 2004. The compact segment has declined as a whole since those years due to increasing popularity of crossovers, as the Opel/Vauxhall Mokka and the Renault Captur and Kadjar are expected to cannibalize sales from their compact siblings. But the Astra and Megane will still be very important models for their brands, as the Astra will outsell the Corsa to become the brands best selling model and the Megane will trail only the Clio for second place within the brand.

Opel_Astra_Sports_Tourer-2016-European-sales-estimateThese declining volumes are likely to have a negative impact on the decision to offer a three-door (or in these cases a coupe) model of the new generations. That means 2016 will mark the end of the line for the Astra GTC and Megane Coupe, as the brands will focus on the five-door hatchback and station wagon versions. No word is out on whether the General Motors unit will launch a 4-door sedan version of the Astra again. Renault already carries the Fluence, which is more popular in other parts of the world than in Europe.

So what do you think of these sales projections? Realistic or not? Let me know in this poll:

Do you agree with the volume predictions for the Astra (300.000) and Megane (190.000) in 2016?

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About Bart Demandt

Bart is a 36-year old Dutchman who's always had a thing for cars, the automotive industry and statistics. He’s combined these passions by writing about them on CarSalesBase.com. His daily driver is an Alfa Romeo GT 3.2 V6 which he just can't seem to say goodbye to thanks to the mesmerizing exhaust note.
You can find all his articles Here.

Comments

  1. Krzysztof Wozniak says:

    I feel like the good-looking Astra could be a surprise hit

  2. Two interestings newcomers. I’m not really amazed by their design, but this goes for most C-segment cars. The Astra front is typical Opel, but the Alfa-esque behind is not very characteristic. The Adam line on the wagon’s rear post looks weird. Hopefully Renault draws a better looking estate. I like the hatch, but just like the Astra, the Mégane isn’t 100% unique, because it has a Toyota Auris side.

    I think both models will do well. First tests of these cars state they’re good. The Astra will get a boost anyway by winning the 2016 European Car of the Year award thanks to the conservative jury.

  3. 190k as estimation for Megane? You are kidding? The previous generation has 150k result last year and 200k in 2012. When Megane III was introduced it reached 250k, 270k.

    Megane IV has very good reception. Even Auto Bild rated it 5 stars. “Left-lane” is the only portal I read that claims that Megane IV will be a fail. Especially agaist Astra, which in first test has a very poor build quality (especially interior).

  4. Bart Demandt says:

    Hi ToJa,

    bear in mind the new Megane won’t arrive in showrooms until March, which means it won’t hit full volume of customer deliveries until May or so. The current model sold only 8.250 cars per month on average between July and October, so I expect the Megane to have a slow start of the year. Also, only a five-door will be available in 2016, as Renault focuses on the introduction of the Scenic before a Megane station wagon, while the Astra will be available as a station wagon for most of the year, and has a head start from already being in showrooms and on the road in December.
    Also take into account that some customers may switch to the Kadjar instead of the Megane. Opel/Vauxhall will have less internal cannibalization from the ancient Antara.
    So I don’t claim it will be a fail at all, I think the Megane will beat that figure in 2017 when it has a full year of availability, including the wagon. Quite the opposite, the Megane would be my preferred one of these two as well and I sincerely hope it will be a success and indeed beat that figure.

  5. It’s hard to predict numbers. The VW scandal may affect sales of the Golf but not by much. As stated, the segment has been dropping in sales. However, new models always lift sales and two new models released so close to each other in time will surely give total compact class sales a bit of a boost.

  6. Hi Bart!

    I thought that your poll was more general. For example: “How Astra and Megane will send yearly” not only in 2016.

    You might be right considering 2016, when Megane won’t have station wagon and RS version. Let see what will happen!

Let me know what you think of this article. Thanks!

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